Month: March 2024

The program had another successful result at Tampa today, this time in a 7th, a $32K maiden claiming race run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf. The Turf program had #1 Officer Derrick as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.91% (2-1 odds). Even though Officer Derrick did not project as well with the Grey version, which takes into account both dirt and turf data, the horse projected 1st with the Turf version, which processes only turf data. As it turns out, Officer Derrick had the highest final speed figure on turf of all the horses in the field. Besides having a high total win probability, Officer Derrick had a 39.7% final speed estimate (about 7-5 equivalent) and 100% values in E1, E2 and COMP. Only with the Turf version would you have detected the horse was so strong on turf against this field, showing its value in complementing the Grey version as a handicapping tool. Even though there was not a lot of data, the calculations were still correct in pointing to strength with Officer Derrick.

Ahead of the Tampa Bay Derby tomorrow, the program had a good result with its first selection in the 2nd at Tampa today, a $8K claiming race at 1m 40y on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The first selection was #2 Perfectly Golden with a total winning probability of 36.08%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-5 versus 5-2 on the M/L. The horse went off at exactly 9-5, showing there is some statistical intelligence to the pool after all. Perfectly Golden led most of the way before facing a mighty challenge from #1 Anotherdaygoneby, who was a long shot at 14-1 (16-1 in the model). Perfectly Golden held off the challenger just long enough to get the win. With such a close finish, the race illustrates how much horse racing involves chance when victory almost turns into defeat.

In the third, the program had another winner with its first selection in #4 Golden Juan at 3-1, who had theoretical odds of 2-1. Note the horse had a 95.6% COMP value, which is unheard of. This was an $8K claiming race for four-year-olds at 1m 40y on the dirt. Golden Juan was dominant in the win, leading most of the way and winning by three lengths over #3 Doinittherightway. To see the images in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

The program had a nice result today in the 5th at Gulfstream, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. off the turf for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #2 Tatanka with a total winning probability of 24.20% (3-1 odds) versus 5-1 on the M/L and 4-1 in live odds. Tatanka projected 2nd in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate but first in E1 and E2 at 58.0% and 56.2%. The horse also had COMP value of 32.3% (2-1 equivalent). There were two favorites in the race in #3 Space Launch at 9/5 with a 7.43% total win probability and #10 Tartufo at 5/2 with a 19.77% win probability. In the race, Tatanka broke to an early lead and held on to beat Space Launch, with #10 Tartufo finishing third.

The program had a number of good results today at Tampa, including having winners with its first selection in the first two races. In the first race, a $16K claiming race at 1m 40y for four-year-olds, the program had #4 Star Kanoo as it first selection with a total win probability of 29.60%, translating into odds of roughly 2-1. This was very close to where the horse went off at 5-2 even though it was 6-1 on the M/L. Besides having very high E1 and E2 win estimates of 80.6% and 93.1%, Star Kanoo had a high COMP estimate of 58%, which is the win probability from adding the results of the simulation of E1, E2 and LP together. The COMP value signaled that the horse was strong with its components (4-5 equivalent) in the simulation compared to the other horses. This is how the race played out with Star Kanoo leading early and then running away from the competition down the stretch to get the win.

We are pleased to offer a product upgrade in PHW 4.3 Grey. For the first time the program displays the theoretical odds of the horses as converted from the win probabilities. The theoretical odds are fractional and shown in their own column next to Total Win Probability (TOP) and in the Total Win Probability chart next to the horses’ names on the bottom-left. This addition to PHW’s calculations allows easy comparisons of the theoretical odds to the live odds so that the user will be able to spot overlays and underlays in no time. Below are the results of the program from the 4th race at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $100,000 Handicap race run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up, in which the program had the winner with its first selection in #10 Exact Estimate. At odds of less than 5-2, the horse was an underlay compared to its theoretical odds of 7-2, which can be seen in Column T. The program is available on the Purchase Page under Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 Grey. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for full-size image in the center.