Author: handicapwizard

The result of the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine was an interesting one from a handicapping point of view. While it was not the top selection in the model according to the main algorithm, #5 One Bad Boy had signs of speed in its E1 and E2 estimates (49.4% and 30.8%), so much so that the horse ranked highest in the TRIO category with a 53% winning probability. The TRIO metric is an estimate that combines the simulation results of the E1, E2 and LP components together. Why the horse did not have a higher total winning probability is because it had the lowest variance in final speed figures in the field, which depressed his SPD simulation results relative to the other horses. The other factor was a relatively low winning percentage at 5.8%. Yet, in this race, its speed more than compensated.

Here are the model results for today’s $1 million Queen’s Plate Stakes in race 10 at Woodbine, which is run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Skywire as its top selection due to its highest SPD and LP estimates in the field at 28% and 57% for a total winning probability of 18.34%. Next are Avie’s Flatter at 15.64% and Desert Ride at 14.88%. Two horses that are offering value according to ROI analysis compared to the M/L are #1 Desert Ride at 7-1 and #7 Federal Law at 15-1.

The race of the day for the program was the 5th today at Gulfstream, a $20K maiden claiming race at 7.5f for fillies and mares three-years old. According to ROI analysis, both #7 Glovanna at 21-1 and #10 Assume Control at 34-1 offered significant value compared to their winning probabilities of 16.9% and 13.7% as the second and third selections. In the race, #4 Captured Beauty at 17-1 broke to the lead and led through the 1st half, followed by the live odds favorite #8 Prickly Kitten at 5-2. Glovanna and Assume Control were forwardly placed as well. Coming around the far turn, #2 Golden Tap at 9-2 weaved through traffic before finding running room in the center, while Prickly Kitten continued to press on the inside. Inside the last 1/16 mi. Glovanna caught up with the leaders in an outside bid before beating them at the wire by a neck. The horse paid $45.20 for the win. The model had the exacta order reversed, which paid $236.40. 

The program had a couple of successful results today at Belmont Park worth mentioning. In the 3rd, a $40K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the top selection, #4 Appicator, went wire-to-wire in a win, upseting the live odds’ favorite, #7 Harv Won’t Tap at 2-1. The horse paid $9.10.

And in the 4th, an $80K optional claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year olds, there was an opportunity not often seen in the odds, with several horses offering significant value due to the favorite, #8 Mutakativ, being ovebet at 1-1. One was #6 Discretionary Marquee with a winning probability of 13.6% versus 16-1 odds and another was #7 Banana Thief with a 16.8% winning probability versus 12-1 odds. That resulted in large expected ROI values for the horses of +131% and +118%. In the race, Discretionary Marque showed speed early on and held on doggedly to the end, while Banana Thief finished second. Discretionary Marque paid $34.80 for the win.

One of the most interesting races today odds-wise was in the 7th at Gulfstream, a $6,250 claiming race at 1m on the dirt for three-year olds without a win since early May. According to the program, #7 Dream Martini had the highest winning percentage at 33% versus odds of 6-1, representing value. There was also value in #2 Avast Matey at 46-1 compared to the model’s winning probability of 7.42%. With those high of odds, it had an expected return of +249%, the highest in the field, with Dream Martini next at +131%. The market saw Chiseled as the best horse with odds of 6-5. Even though the race was a low-stakes claiming race, the implied winning probability of Chiseled at 45% (versus the model probability 19.60%) signaled that the horse was a strong contender to win. Therefore, if the horseplayer was still looking to play value, Dream Martini or Avast Matey would have to be taken for place or show. Judging by Avast Matey’s SPD estimate, the horse did not appear to have much speed; however, his E1 and E2 estimates of 36% and 38% told a different story, that the horse was relatively fast through early and middle distances. The horse also had decent final speed figures five and six races back. Where Avast Matey was lacking was in LP, indicating the horse was not finishing his races. If the horse could stretch out just a little farther, he was worth taking a flier on either to place or show. As it turns out, Chiseled won the race, while Avast Matey came in 2nd and Dream Martini third. Avast Matey led for much of the race, until he was overtaken down the stretch by Chiseled. Avast Matey paid $26.40 for the place.