Author: handicapwizard

The Handicap Wizard had three of the top four finishers correct in the Louisiana Derby with its top four selections. Its first selection, War of Will, suffered a hing leg injury coming out of the gate and was not a factor in the race. The horse that won, By My Standards, defied long odds to beat the Pletcher trained, Spinoff, at the wire.

To put By My Standards performance in perspective mathematically, his mean final speed figure before the Louisiana Derby was 84.75 in four starts with a standard deviation of 4.27. In the Louisiana Derby he put up a 102 figure, which was 4.04 standard deviations above the mean. The equivalent probability is 0.0027% or 1 in 37,417.

If we go off his last fig of 90, the jump to a 102 final speed figure is still 2.81 standard deviations higher. The probability of that happening from 90 as a mean using the same standard deviation is 0.2477% or 1 in 404.

The road to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday, March 23rd, through the Fairgrounds with the $1 million Louisiana Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. This contest features Mark Casse trained sensation, War of Will, who under the reins of Tyler Gaffalione has won his last three races, including the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February and the G3 LeComte stakes in January. Hoping to challenge War of Will are Risen Star Stakes runner-up, Country House, who finished two-and-a-half lengths behind War of Will in that race as well as the late running Sueno, who placed behind Supersteed in the Southwest and behind Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes. Other notable contenders include Limonite, who was third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in November, and Pletcher Trained, Spinoff, who looks to be the speed in this race.

The Handicap Wizard is favoring War of Will to win, whom it rates highest both in speed and winning percentage with estimates of 34.3% and 20.4%. Its combined winning percentage of 25% puts its fair value around 3-1. Next is Country House, who while having low estimates for E1 and E2, has the highest LP estimate at 51%,. This may bode well for him because of the longer distance of this race. Spinoff has comparably good E1 and E2 estimates to War of Will, but it is unclear given his inexperience at two turns whether he has the stamina to go the entire 1 1/8 mi. Sueno could be the surprise in the race, considering how he closed on Supersteed in the Southwest after being boxed in around the far turn. His final speed figure of 93 underestimates his true speed, which is higher. Look for Sueno to get a good price, with 7-1 being his fair value.

Continuing with the theme of identifying and realizing value, race 2 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race run at 6f for three-year-old fillies on the dirt, presented an opportunity with the #5 horse, Noncents. The horse was being discounted by the market with 13-1 odds, yet upon closer inspection of her E1 and E2 estimates in simulation, 51.1% and 60%, she clearly had the most speed in the race. The two favorites, #4 Midnight Miracle at 8-5 and #8 Stronger Kat at 3-1 did not compare in these categories. Even with a combined winning probability of 20% according to the model, putting her fair value at 4-1, Noncents was getting more than three times her value in terms of odds and therefore, deserved heavy betting consideration. The race unfolded with #3 Mertz taking an early lead, who was second in the E1 category, while Noncents shadowed her on her outside. Mertz maintained the lead through the half-mile point and around the far turn, before Noncents took command down the stretch to win by one half length over #1 Elissas Secret, who also ran well. Noncents paid $29.00 for the win. By having confidence in the speed estimates of the Handicap Wizard, which offers precision data through its 1000X simulation engine, one is able to take advantage of these mis-pricings for profit when they appear.

The difference in whether one is profitable in handicapping horse racing often comes down to identifying and realizing value. But what constitutes value can change from race to race based on the different dynamics of each horse. For one race, one might be able to find value in the speed estimate of a horse relative to its odds, either in the final speed estimate or in the E1, E2 and LP components or in combination; in another race, it might be in the Winning Percentage (WP) calculation, which signifies a horse’s class strength relative to the field. Race 7 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race for four-year olds an upward, was an example of where the WP calculation allowed value to be realized in the #4 horse, Face of Victory. A Pletcher horse, #5 Driven By Thunder, was the live odds favorite at 8-5, owing to a dominant final speed estimate of 40.4% and 49% and 67% estimates for E1 and E2. However, the distance of the race at 1 1/16 mi. on turf seemed a poor fit for Driven By Thunder, considering that it had no late speed with a 0% LP estimate. The horse was not a fair bet anyway with a negative expected ROI of 19% according to the model, making it imperative to look elsewhere. While not showing stellar speed, Face of Victory was comparably strong to Driven By Thunder in terms of winning percentage at 15.3% versus 17%, yet the horse was at long odds of 15-1. That meant the horse was being priced at more than a 50% discount according to the winning metric, representing significant value. The race saw Driven By Thunder and Face of Victory both bolting out of the gate and running side-by-side around the first turn, before Driven By Thunder took a short lead. After running the opening quarter in 22.40, Driven By Victory maintained the hot pace for the half mile, completing it in 45.60, while Face of Victory stalked two lengths back and #1 Flow Motion at 5-2 closed the gap to the leaders to a length and a half. Around the far turn, the three horses ran in tandem, before Face of Victory found an extra gear in a three-wide bid to overtake Driven By Thunder on his inside. With Driven By Thunder giving up the ghost after a grueling pace, Face of Victory charged ahead to the lead in the stretch, as Flow Motion continued to hound him on the outside. But Flow Motion could not get any closer than one length behind Face of Victory, who finished the 1 1/16 mi. in a fast time of 1:40:51. Face of Victory paid $32.20 for the win.

Sometimes the differences in strength between horses is razor thin, that only a computer with the help of sophisticated software can successfully pinpoint who’s best. That was true today in race 3 at GP, a $16K claiming race for four-year olds on upward over 7 1/2f on the turf. The Handicap Wizard rated Nileator at 7-2 as its top selection, albeit barely. Two other horses, namely, Rompin Red at 7-2 and Tipsy Kitten at 6-5 had comparable winning probabilities around 25%. In such situations, it often pays (quite literally) to defer to the speed estimate instead of winning percentage (WP) to decide what horse to play, because speed is the most significant explaining variable. Nileator with a winning speed estimate (SPD) of 37.6% looked then to be the best choice. This was how the race went, with Nileator taking the lead out of the gate and never looking back to win wire-to-wire. Nileator was also a fair bet, having a positive expected ROI of 11%.

According to the live odds, race 5 looked to be a contest between Teak and Big Possible with odds of 3-2 and 2-1, respectively. However, this $16K race for three-year olds and up was very short at only 5f on the turf. The data in the Handicap Wizard revealed that Teak was indeed the speed horse in the race but only as far as E1 with an estimate of 54.4%. He had nothing to show for E2 and only the 5th strongest LP rating. Another horse, Salambro at 11-1, had the 2nd highest E1 estimate behind Teak and the highest E2 estimate at 65.4%. No one else came close. Given the short distance, it could be deduced from that Salambro had precisely the right speed where it was needed to win at 5f. The race played out with Teak going to the early lead, while Salambro stalked from about 3 1/2 lengths back. Heading into the final stretch, Salambro turned on his speed in a five wide bid, overtaking three other horses inside him, to win by under a length. Salambro paid $24.20 for the win. The horse had a positive expected ROI of 94%, while the two favorites had negative expected ROIs.