Author: handicapwizard

On the day the latest version of the Handicap Wizard was released, the program had a good result in the sole stakes race at the Fair Grounds, a $75K race at 5.5f on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old an upward. Despite having odds of 11-1, the HW rated #2 Student Body as its top selection with a combined winning probability of 27%. Its speed estimate (SPD) was even higher at 36.6%. The horse also showed strong underneath figures, ranking 2nd behind #6 Oxford Comma at 2-1 in E1, 1st in E2 and toward the middle of the pack in LP. Student Body broke well from the gate and led all the way until the last 1/16 mi., before #7 La Dame Blanche at 4-1 (whom the track handicappers had favored) closed to challenge. In a tough duel, Student Body dug in to win by half a length over La Dame Blanche, paying $24.80. Student Body was also the top ROI pick, making it a nice setup indeed.

The latest version of the Handicap Wizard, 3.2, is now available. For the first time, the E1, E2 and LP data has been incorporated, along with SPD and WP, into the main algorithm. Version 3.2 also has a new look as seen below.

The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the winner of the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds, run at 1 1/16 mi for three-year olds, with its top selection in War of Will. It nearly had the exacta as well, with its 3rd selection, Country House, coming in second.

It also predicted the winner of the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes for three-year old fillies in the 11th race at the same distance with Serengeti Empress.

The Handicap Wizard predicted the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa yesterday, run at 1 1/16 mi. on dirt for three-year olds, with its top selection of Well Defined at 7-1. It also had the winner in the Sun Coast Stakes for three-year old fillies with Point of Honor at 5-2.

The $150K Swale Stakes (G3) at GP, run at 7f on dirt for three-year olds, turned out to be a contest between #5 Call Paul’s class, who was the favorite at 3-2, and #9 Zenden’s speed. At 9-1 Zenden was rated by the market mid-pack, with four horses having lower odds than him. The Handicap Wizard rated him strongest with a 24% winning probability, owing to a 35% winning speed estimate. In the end, Call Paul’s class proved superior, but just barely, in that he won by a length to a horse that had only a 10% implied winning probability compared to his own probability of 27%. In all fairness, the data integrity of the race was low at .27, meaning there was scant data for the Handicap Wizard to assess, yet it nearly had the exacta order correct, #5 and #9, which paid $40.40.