Author: handicapwizard

While the market prices of the horses are supposed to reflect the public and track’s best guess who will win a race, the market on occasion can be dead wrong, as occurred at Race 8 at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $47K allowance race at 5f on turf for three-year olds and up. According to the post-time odds, #6 Razorback Lady at 35-1 had less than a 3% implied probability of winning. This had mostly to due with the horse’s recent performance, where it comparably had the lowest final speed figure in the field. However, three, four and five races back Razorback Lady had shown significant speed strength, posting three final speed figures in the mid nineties. As the Handicap Wizard accounts for the range of horses speed figures in its simulation, it judged the horse to have the highest potential speed with a winning speed estimate of 51%, albeit, accompanied by a somewhat high risk measure or Coefficient of Variation of 13%. With a total winning estimate of 30%, Razorback Lady was as large of an underlay as one will ever see using the Handicap Wizard program. Despite having higher than average risk, Razorback Lady proved to be the biggest winner on the card at Gulfstream on Saturday, paying $75 for a $2 wager. This race also shows that the program does not select just chalks, as Razorback Lady was the 2nd biggest long-shot on the board.

 

One of the features of the Handicap Wizard is a hybrid approach that incorporates the implied winning probabilities of the live odds of the horses into its core equations. Although the program is very thorough in its simulation, taking into account the final, early and late pace speed figures, and gauges winning percentage correctly, there is still information it does not reflect, which is, however reflected in the market odds. This is exemplified when a horse is getting much lower odds than its theoretical winning percentage, which happened today at Aqueduct in race 9 with #7 horse, Ouro Verde. Ouro Verde had the lowest odds in the field at 3-1, yet the model had the horse as its fourth selection with a total winning estimate of 8.80%. This made it a heavy overlay, but was suggestive of there being smart money on the horse, since the quantitative data did not support the low odds. The Handicap Wizard’s top selection was #9 Two Hot Betty with a winning estimate of 27.51%, equating to theoretical odds around 3-1 versus post-time odds of 4-1. In this contest between the model’s and the market’s view, which one was right? Answer: both were right. Two Hot Betty was the winner, while Ouro Verde came in second. The hybrid model also had the order of the tri-fecta correct with Third Card Down as its third selection. The difference between the winning estimates of the place and third cards was thin, but that was what was required to predict the order of a 113-1 tri-fecta, which the Handicap Wizard did using the live odds. The result is indicative of greater program accuracy than using the past performance data alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Despite most races on the Gulfstream card having scant past performance data yesterday, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selection in four out of the first six races (the rest had no data), all of which were stakes races with a $75K purse. Its best two results were in the 1st with Bye Bye Jay, which went off at 6-1, and in the 6th with A Bit Special (GB), who was 5-2 in a ten horse field. Bye Bye Jay was an underlay for having only a 77 for his final speed figure in his last race, which was average for the field, but two races back he had posted a 92. From simulation the Handicap Wizard calculated a significant speed advantage for Bye Bye Jay with a winning speed estimate of 62%, while his E1 and LP figures rated well against those of the other horses. Bye Bye Jay did not disappoint, paying $14.80 for the win. These results show that even with minimal data, the Handicap Wizard is still an accurate program.

 

 

The Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in four out of five non-maiden races at Aqueduct Yesterday, including the $100K Garland of Roses stakes at 6f on dirt with Vertical Oak.

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today at Delmar, with its top selection winning three out five non maiden races, including the 6th and 8th besides the already mentioned 1st race. In the 6th race—a $40K optional claimer over 1 mile on dirt—the program hit the tri-fecta with its top three selections. The order went Kershaw at 5-2, Popular Kid at 5-1 and Jungle Warfare at 7-2. There were two other horses—Giant Influence and Sheer Flatters—whose odds at 9-2 were in the same upper tier.  The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $30.65.

In the 8th race—a $16K claimer over 6f on dirt—the odds favorite, Spokane Eagle, won at 2-1. The horse was near fair value compared to its winning estimate of 27%. The 5th and 9th races were not considered, the former because of scant data and the latter because of the short 5f distance.