The Grey program had a very nice result in the 9th race today at Santa Anita, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the winner with its first selection of #13 Big Celebration at 12-1. The horse had a total win probability of 24.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Big Celebration projected in final speed with a win estimate of 34.5% while having a COMP value of 59%, indicating 4-5 strength on a component level in the simulation against the field. In the race, Big Celebration stalked from well off the pace until making a move wide into the half mile mark. The horse continued to gain momentum around the far turn and then took the lead from $10 Lady Monclaire coming into the stretch. Big Celebration held on for the win in the upset. Big Celebration paid $28.80 for the win. This race illustrated once again the advantage to having a good quantitative program like the Handicap Wizard that can identify strength in undervalued horses.

Another good turf result was seen in the 5th race at Tampa, a $53K allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year-old fillies and mares, with the 1st selection, #9 Dreaming of Abba at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 31.52%, converting to odds of 2-1. Dreaming Abba projected 1st in final speed with a 65.8% (3-5 equivalent strength in odds) win estimate while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 3.63%. Dreaming of Abba turned in a gritty performance, weaving through traffic coming out of the far turn and accelerating down the strength to win by a neck in an exciting finish. The horse paid $6.20 for the win. The 2-1 theoretical odds shows again how accurate the program is in exactly matching the live odds of the horse through its combination of projections and historical win percentage with money finishes.

The program had two excellent results in turf races at Gulfstream today beginning in the first with its first selection, #9 Blossoming Erudite, who won at 6-1 while having theoretical odds of 2-1. The second was with #7 Chess Master in the 7th, who also won at 6-1 while having theoretical odds of 5-2. These are textbook examples of E/V (Expected Value) positive horses that can be found with the program who have excellent changes of winning and winning at good prices. Blossoming Erudite paid $14 and Chess Master paid $16.50 for the wins. These races illustrate again the advantage to be obtained with the Turf Program, which uses only turf data instead of both dirt and turf data.

Race 1 – $35K claiming race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old-fillies

Race 7 – $25K OC at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds

The program had the winner in the G3 $400K Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three -year-olds, with its first selection in #6 Gosger at 4-1. The horse had a total win probability of 25.72%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. Gosger projected 1st in final speed with a 40.4% win estimate (7-5 equivalent strength in odds) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 4.64%. The horse paid $10.60 for the win.

The program had a very nice result today in the 7th race at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-old fillies, having the tri-fecta (and superfecta) order correct with its first three selections of #2 Slew Diva at 3-1 (5-2 theoretical odds), #4 Pop Rox at 7-1 (4-1 theoretical odds) and #8 United Forever at 7-1 (5-1 theoretical odds). The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $66.80 and the $0.10 superfecta $51.39.