Month: April 2024

Race 4 at Parx today, a $5K claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years old and up, was very illustrative of how the program can be used to identify the best horses in the field. #4 Peach Perfect at 1-1 was the first selection and M/L favorite with a total win probability of 36.86%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in SPD with a 53.3% win estimate while also having the highest COMP value at 39.7%. The #5 horse, Princess Sophie, was a toss based on its recent form after recording a 48 final speed figure in its last race, even though it had the highest win percentage in the field at 36%. The true second best horse was #2 Just Stay Home at 5-1 with a total win probability of 13.50%, who projected third in final speed with a 17.8% win estimate while having the second highest COMP value at 29.9% (2-1 equivalent). Though both horses were underlays, none of the other horses in the field measured up statistically to these two horses. Therefore, an exacta box wager was in order with them. In the race, Just Stay Home surged around the far turn to take the lead down the stretch while Princess Sophie fought hard to challenge for a second place finish. The $1 exacta paid $20.40.

In yesterday’s action, the program had winners with its first selections in the two stakes races at Oaklawn— the G3 $600K Count Fleet Sprint in the 8th and the G1 $1.25 mil. Apple Blossom in the 11th. In the Count Fleet Sprint, the program had the tri-fecta order correct with its first three selections in #4 Skelly, #6 Tejano Twist and #8 Happy is a Choice. At Keeneland, the program had the two exacta horses with its first two selections of #2 Wine Steward and #8 Encino, though the finishing order was reversed with Encino winning.

8th at Oaklawn (G3 Count Fleet Spring)

11th at Oaklawn (G1 Apple Blossom)

10th at Keeneland (G1 Lexington)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcFdg1qytHE

The program had a nice result in race 3 at Oaklawn today, a $8K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Luv to Win with a total win probability of 27.47% (5-2 theoretical odds) versus final odds of 7-1. On the class drop, the horse went wire-to-wire in the win.

The PHW 4.3 Turf version is now available for sale on the “Purchase” page. It has the same functionality as PHW 4.3 Grey, including containing theoretical odds converted from the total win probabilities, but uses only turf data to provide strictly turf calculations. These will give the user an edge in turf races in providing analysis and data from a pure turf perspective instead of combining apples with oranges, so to speak, when the public generally does not differentiate between dirt and turf data in considering past performance data. The logic behind the program is that turf horses tend to do well on turf and dirt horses tend to do well on dirt. One exception was Catholic Boy, who won high graded stakes races on both surfaces. Most horses are not versatile like Catholic Boy.

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Sierra Leone won the $1 mil. Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland yesterday, beating Just A Touch by two lengths. Coming out of the far turn, Sierra Leone was about six wide but found his stride down the stretch, accelerating in the final eighth. Sierra Leone was the third selection with theoretical odds of 9-2 compared to final odds of 8-5. The second selection, Just a Touch at 3-1 (7-2 theoretical odds), was leading the race down the stretch until the final sixteenth when he was overtaken by Sierra Leone. As mentioned in the preview, Just a Touch had a very strong COMP figure of 61.5% (4-5 equivalent), indicating that the horse projected very well against the field on a component level (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) in the aggregate in the simulation. Dornoch at 5-2 (7-2 theoretical odds) finished fourth.