The program had the winner today with its first selection of #3 Stronghold in the $750K G1 Santa Anita Derby. Stronghold had a total win probability of 38.87%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse went off a 2-1. In a thrilling finish, Stronghold beat the favorite, Baffert trained #4 Imagination at 1-1, by a nose, who was the third selection with theoretical odds of 5-1.
Today at Keeneland is the G1 $1 mil. Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #4 Dornoch, winner of the Remsen and Fountain of Youth, #10 Sierra Leone, winner of the Risen Star and runner-up in the Remsen, and #6 Just in Touch, runner-up in the Gotham. The program is favoring #4 Dornoch with a total win probability of 20.9% (7-2 theoretical odds) versus 3-1 on the M/L. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 30.6% (about 2-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 18.9%. Second is #6 Just in Touch with a total win probability of 20.33% (7-2 theoretical odds) compared to the M/L of 7/2. Just in Touch has a COMP value of 63.4%, signaling significant strength at the component level in the simulation. Third is #11 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.48% (9-2 theoretical odds) compared to 2-1 on the M/L. Sierra Leone has the most class in the field with a win percentage of 20.9%. Given that the total win probabilities of the top three selections are close, separated by only four percentage points, this race is a tough one to call. Dornoch has won his last three races, included two G2 graded stakes races, while Sierra Leonne is coming of a win in the Risen Star. Just in Touch’s high COMP value of 63.4% may be telling in this race, though he has not gone further than 1 mi.
Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 