Race 4 at Parx today, a $5K claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years old and up, was very illustrative of how the program can be used to identify the best horses in the field. #4 Peach Perfect at 1-1 was the first selection and M/L favorite with a total win probability of 36.86%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in SPD with a 53.3% win estimate while also having the highest COMP value at 39.7%. The #5 horse, Princess Sophie, was a toss based on its recent form after recording a 48 final speed figure in its last race, even though it had the highest win percentage in the field at 36%. The true second best horse was #2 Just Stay Home at 5-1 with a total win probability of 13.50%, who projected third in final speed with a 17.8% win estimate while having the second highest COMP value at 29.9% (2-1 equivalent). Though both horses were underlays, none of the other horses in the field measured up statistically to these two horses. Therefore, an exacta box wager was in order with them. In the race, Just Stay Home surged around the far turn to take the lead down the stretch while Princess Sophie fought hard to challenge for a second place finish. The $1 exacta paid $20.40.
Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 